In September 2023, InfraNorth teamed up with the Barents Institute (BI), Sør-Varanger Utvikling, the Sør-Varanger municipality, and the Sør-Varanger library to organize two scenario workshops to discuss possible futures with local inhabitants and stakeholders.

The workshops aimed to spark discussions over the future of the Sør-Varanger municipality and its transportation infrastructure. Four distinct scenarios were developed in collaboration with scenario experts from the International Institute for Advanced Systems Analysis (IIASA). Our local co-organizers validated the draft scenarios during Olga Povoroznyuk’s guest research stay at the BI in Kirkenes in February 2023. The involvement of the BI colleagues was central to building contacts with other local key partners and stakeholders. At the same time, the Sør-Varanger Library agreed to host both workshops, providing much-needed logistical support. Last but not least, illustrations of the scenarios created by local artist Anja Eline Danielsen were instrumental in provoking lively discussions.

The two workshops targeted professionals representing relevant organizations from Sør-Varanger and the general public respectively. Participants discussed each of the four scenarios, as well as their “ideal” futures. The four provocative scenarios, co-developed by InfraNorth and IIASA teams, described a specific future for the Sør-Varanger municipality and its transportation infrastructure within the next 25 years:

Scenario 1: Industrial Town

Scenario 2: Global Transportation Hub

This scenario sees large-scale investments into mineral resource extraction and infrastructure expansion. Geopolitical tensions limit the use of the Northern Sea Route, increasing Norway’s military presence. The population slightly declines and Sámi rights take a backseat to industrial growth. Read more…

Kirkenes’ role in global trade becomes pivotal in this scenario, supported by new infrastructure like a deep-water port and a railway to Rovaniemi. Improved Russian-Norwegian relations enhance the town’s role along the Northern Sea Route, and the booming trade, science, and education sectors attract a diverse population. Read more…

Scenario 3: Innovative Polar Reserve

Scenario 4: Military Outpost

Environmental conservation is prioritized over industrial and infrastructural development in this scenario. Plans to expand infrastructure are abandoned, green transport solutions are implemented, and the region becomes an innovative eco-tourism destination. As Sami rights become more recognized, the region experiences a slight population decline. Read more…

Severe climate change and geopolitical tensions are the main drivers behind this scenario, in which security concerns outweigh economic growth and community development. The Northern Sea Route’s usage declines, and the border to Russia is closed. Military expansion integrates the region into Nordic transportation networks, and military personnel dominate the population. Read more…